{"id":25920,"date":"2026-07-31T05:48:20","date_gmt":"2026-07-31T05:48:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/?p=25920"},"modified":"2026-07-31T05:48:20","modified_gmt":"2026-07-31T05:48:20","slug":"de-astazi-romania-fara-energie-nucleara-salvarea-vine-de-la-importuri-care-pot-acoperi-deficitul-dar-numai-intr-un-scenariu-regional-favorabil","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/2026\/07\/31\/de-astazi-romania-fara-energie-nucleara-salvarea-vine-de-la-importuri-care-pot-acoperi-deficitul-dar-numai-intr-un-scenariu-regional-favorabil\/","title":{"rendered":"De ast\u0103zi, Rom\u00e2nia f\u0103r\u0103 energie nuclear\u0103: salvarea vine de la importuri care pot acoperi deficitul, dar numai \u00eentr-un scenariu regional favorabil"},"content":{"rendered":"

Oprirea ambelor unit\u0103\u021bi de la Cernavod\u0103 scoate din sistem aproximativ 1.400 MW capacit\u0103\u021bi de produc\u021bie continu\u0103 \u0219i predictibil\u0103<\/strong>. Rom\u00e2nia poate evita \u00eentreruperile de alimentare, \u00eens\u0103 ajunge s\u0103 depind\u0103 aproape integral de disponibilitatea vecinilor exact c\u00e2nd ace\u0219tia se confrunt\u0103 cu aceea\u0219i secet\u0103, canicul\u0103 \u0219i reducere a produc\u021biei nucleare \u0219i hidroelectrice. Estimarea AEI este ca Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103 fie nevoit\u0103 s\u0103 se descurce f\u0103r\u0103 aceste capacit\u0103\u021bi \u00een urm\u0103toarele cca. 3 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni.<\/p>\n

Problema nu este numai dac\u0103 liniile de interconexiune pot transporta 3.000 MW. Problema decisiv\u0103 este dac\u0103 Bulgaria, Ungaria \u0219i Serbia vor avea simultan 3.000 MW disponibili pentru v\u00e2nzare.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Balan\u021ba probabil\u0103 a Rom\u00e2niei<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Transelectrica estimeaz\u0103 pentru aceast\u0103 perioad\u0103 un consum maxim de aproximativ 7.300 MWh\/h<\/strong>, fa\u021b\u0103 de circa 8.000 MWh\/h \u00een perioadele caniculare precedente. Apreciem c\u0103 p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een urm\u0103toarele 7 zile cererea va fi de 7.300 MWh\/h, urm\u00e2nd ca \u00een perioada de canicul\u0103 4 \u2013 9 august 2026 aceasta s\u0103 ating\u0103 8.000 MWh\/h<\/strong>.<\/p>\n

    Dup\u0103 oprirea ambelor unit\u0103\u021bi, balan\u021ba de sear\u0103 poate ar\u0103ta astfel:<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
    Component\u0103 la v\u00e2rful de sear\u0103<\/strong><\/td>\nEstimare Producere \/ Consum <\/strong><\/p>\n

    30 iulie \u2013 3 august<\/strong><\/p>\n

    (MWh) <\/strong><\/td>\n

    		Estimare Producere \/ Consum <\/strong><\/p>\n

    4 august \u2013 9 august<\/strong><\/p>\n

    (MWh) <\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

    Consum na\u021bional<\/td>\n7.000\u20137.300<\/td>\n7.500\u20138.000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Hidro<\/td>\n1.300\u20131.700<\/td>\n1.300\u20131.700<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Gaze<\/td>\n900\u20131.300<\/td>\n900\u20131.300<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    C\u0103rbune<\/td>\n700\u20131.000<\/td>\n700\u20131.000<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Eolian<\/td>\n200\u2013800<\/td>\n200\u2013800<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Biomas\u0103 \u0219i alte surse<\/td>\n100\u2013200<\/td>\n100\u2013200<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Solar dup\u0103 apus<\/td>\n0 MW<\/td>\n0 MW<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Produc\u021bie intern\u0103 total\u0103<\/td>\n3.500\u20134.700<\/strong><\/td>\n3.500\u20134.700<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Import necesar<\/td>\n2.600\u20133.500<\/strong><\/td>\n3.300\u20133.500 <\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Import poten\u021bial disponibil<\/td>\n2.500\u20133.000<\/td>\n2.400\u20132.900<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
    Deficit<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n100 – 500 MW<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n700\u20131.100<\/em><\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

    \u00centr-o sear\u0103 f\u0103r\u0103 v\u00e2nt, cu produc\u021bie hidro redus\u0103, deficitul poate dep\u0103\u0219i capacitatea comercial\u0103 normal\u0103 de import.<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

    \u00a0<\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n

      \n
    1. C\u00e2t poate importa fizic Rom\u00e2nia<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      Capacitatea tehnic\u0103 agregat\u0103 de import a Rom\u00e2niei se situeaz\u0103 \u00een jurul valorii de 3.300 MW<\/strong>, dar valoarea disponibil\u0103 comercial \u00eentr-o anumit\u0103 or\u0103 poate fi mai mic\u0103, \u00een func\u021bie de fluxurile regionale \u0219i de siguran\u021ba re\u021belei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
      Frontier\u0103<\/strong><\/td>\nCapacitate practic\u0103 orientativ\u0103 de import<\/strong><\/td>\nDisponibilitatea energiei<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Ungaria\u2013Rom\u00e2nia<\/td>\n1.000\u20131.400 MW<\/td>\nredus\u0103 de problemele Paks<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Bulgaria\u2013Rom\u00e2nia<\/td>\n700\u20131.000 MW<\/td>\nbun\u0103 c\u00e2t timp Kozlodui func\u021bioneaz\u0103<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Serbia\u2013Rom\u00e2nia<\/td>\n300\u2013600 MW<\/td>\nredus\u0103 de secet\u0103 \u0219i problemele hidro\/termo<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Ucraina\u2013Rom\u00e2nia<\/td>\n100\u2013300 MW<\/td>\nincert\u0103; Ucraina poate avea nevoie de import<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Moldova\u2013Rom\u00e2nia<\/td>\nlimitat\u0103<\/td>\nMoldova este mai cur\u00e2nd consumator dependent<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
      Total simultan realist<\/strong><\/td>\n2.100\u20133.300 MW<\/strong><\/td>\nnumai dac\u0103 exist\u0103 ofert\u0103 regional\u0103<\/strong><\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

      Transelectrica trebuie s\u0103 p\u0103streze rezerve de siguran\u021b\u0103, iar unele fluxuri care intr\u0103 printr-o frontier\u0103 pot traversa Rom\u00e2nia \u0219i ie\u0219i prin alta.<\/p>\n

      \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

        \n
      1. De unde ar putea veni energia<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        Bulgaria \u2013 cea mai important\u0103 surs\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n

        Bulgaria are \u00een prezent aproape 2.000 MW nucleari la Kozlodui. Dac\u0103 ambele unit\u0103\u021bi r\u0103m\u00e2n \u00een func\u021biune, Bulgaria poate sus\u021bine exporturi c\u0103tre Rom\u00e2nia, mai ales noaptea.<\/p>\n

        Dar Bulgaria export\u0103 \u0219i c\u0103tre Grecia, Serbia, Macedonia de Nord \u0219i Turcia. Rom\u00e2nia nu are rezervat\u0103 \u00eentreaga capacitate bulgar\u0103.<\/p>\n

        Export probabil c\u0103tre Rom\u00e2nia: 500\u2013900 MW.<\/strong><\/p>\n

        Dac\u0103 se reduce Kozlodui, disponibilitatea poate cobor\u00ee sub 400 MW. Dac\u0103 se opre\u0219te o unitate, Bulgaria poate \u00eenceta exporturile \u00een orele de v\u00e2rf. Dac\u0103 se opresc ambele, Bulgaria devine probabil importator.<\/p>\n

        Ungaria \u2013 capacitate de transport, dar energie insuficient\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n

        Ungaria este bine interconectat\u0103 cu Rom\u00e2nia, \u00eens\u0103 Paks a pierdut deja o unitate, iar alta func\u021bioneaz\u0103 la putere redus\u0103. Produc\u021bia nuclear\u0103 ungar\u0103 a sc\u0103zut cu aproximativ 700\u2013750 MW.<\/p>\n

        Ungaria poate transfera c\u0103tre Rom\u00e2nia energie provenit\u0103 din Austria, Slovacia sau Cehia, dar va concura pentru aceea\u0219i energie \u0219i cu propriul consum.<\/p>\n

        Import posibil din direc\u021bia Ungaria: 700\u20131.200 MW<\/strong>, \u00eens\u0103 o parte poate fi energie de tranzit, nu surplus ungar.<\/p>\n

        Dac\u0103 se mai opre\u0219te un reactor la Paks, fluxul disponibil poate sc\u0103dea cu 300\u2013500 MW. Dac\u0103 Paks pierde \u00eenc\u0103 dou\u0103 unit\u0103\u021bi, Ungaria devine un mare importator \u0219i nu mai poate fi considerat\u0103 o surs\u0103 sigur\u0103 pentru Rom\u00e2nia.<\/p>\n

        Serbia \u2013 surs\u0103 foarte vulnerabil\u0103<\/strong><\/p>\n

        Produc\u021bia hidro de la Djerdap\/Por\u021bile de Fier a cobor\u00e2t la aproximativ o treime din nivelul normal. Problemele de ap\u0103 afecteaz\u0103 \u0219i centralele pe c\u0103rbune de la Kostolac, iar transporturile de combustibil pe Dun\u0103re se desf\u0103\u0219oar\u0103 la 30\u201340% din capacitatea normal\u0103.<\/p>\n

        Serbia poate furniza punctual 200\u2013400 MW, dar nu trebuie tratat\u0103 ca surs\u0103 permanent\u0103.<\/p>\n

        \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \n
        1. Pre\u021bul PZU va exploda<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

          Pre\u021bul energiei PZU ast\u0103zi la ora 12 va fi 63,3 lei\/MWh si la ora 20 un pre\u021b de 25 de ori mai mare – 1604 lei\/MWh.<\/p>\n

          Pentru 31 iulie, a\u0219 considera realist\u0103 o medie PZU de aproximativ 1.200 lei\/MWh \u0219i un v\u00e2rf de 3.000 lei\/MWh.<\/strong><\/p>\n

          \u00cen urm\u0103toarele s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni, dac\u0103 Bulgaria limiteaz\u0103 exporturile sau Ungaria mai pierde 400\u2013500 MW nucleari \u00eenainte de \u00eenchiderea pie\u021bei, media poate urca spre 1.400\u20131.600 lei\/MWh<\/strong>, iar orele de sear\u0103 pot dep\u0103\u0219i 5.000 lei\/MWh, <\/strong>.<\/p>\n

          \u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

          Concluzie<\/strong><\/p>\n

          Rom\u00e2nia poate acoperi prin import oprirea ambelor reactoare de la Cernavod\u0103 numai dac\u0103:<\/p>\n

            \n
          • Bulgaria p\u0103streaz\u0103 \u00een func\u021biune Kozlodui;<\/li>\n
          • Ungaria nu mai pierde mai mult de \u00eenc\u0103 un reactor;<\/li>\n
          • consumul r\u0103m\u00e2ne \u00een jurul a 7.000\u20137.300 MWh;<\/li>\n
          • exist\u0103 minimum 4.000 MWh\/h produc\u021bie intern\u0103 la v\u00e2rful de sear\u0103;<\/li>\n
          • capacit\u0103\u021bile pe gaze, c\u0103rbune, hidro \u0219i bateriile sunt folosite la maxim.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n

            Importul de aproximativ 3.300 MWh este posibil tehnic, dar nu este garantat comercial<\/strong>. Rom\u00e2nia nu se afl\u0103 \u00eenc\u0103 \u00eentr-un scenariu inevitabil de \u00eentreruperi, \u00eens\u0103 a ajuns \u00eentr-o situa\u021bie \u00een care pierderea a \u00eenc\u0103 500\u20131.000 MW de produc\u021bie \u00een Bulgaria sau Ungaria poate transforma o problem\u0103 de pre\u021b \u00eentr-o problem\u0103 de adecvan\u021b\u0103 \u0219i securitate energetic\u0103.<\/p>\n

            DDTop of Form<\/p>\n

            Dumitru Chisalita<\/strong><\/p>\n

            Presedinte AEI<\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

            Oprirea ambelor unit\u0103\u021bi de la Cernavod\u0103 scoate din sistem aproximativ 1.400 MW capacit\u0103\u021bi de produc\u021bie continu\u0103 \u0219i predictibil\u0103. Rom\u00e2nia poate evita \u00eentreruperile de alimentare, \u00eens\u0103 ajunge s\u0103 depind\u0103 aproape integral de disponibilitatea vecinilor exact c\u00e2nd ace\u0219tia se confrunt\u0103 cu aceea\u0219i secet\u0103, canicul\u0103 \u0219i reducere a produc\u021biei nucleare \u0219i hidroelectrice. Estimarea AEI este ca Rom\u00e2nia s\u0103…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":25921,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-25920","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-actualitate","category-comunicate"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25920","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=25920"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25920\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":25922,"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/25920\/revisions\/25922"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/25921"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=25920"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=25920"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/obiectiv-valcean.ro\/index.php\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=25920"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}